Tag:Los Angeles Lakers
Posted on: December 29, 2011 5:09 pm

11-12 NBA Season is about "Luck"

This NBA season is going to be all about Luck. No not in the way that the 2012 NFL Draft will be all about Andrew Luck but in the way of the Luckiest survive. Talent is talent but then again age is age. When you have only about four months to play sixty six games health is going to be an issue. So the younger you are the healthier you are but without experience a team makes more mistakes. Injuries happen to every team and every player, but the older you are the more likely injuries will come up. So the teams that stay healthy are more likely to have more frequent and longer winning streaks. So the luckier you are with your injuries the more likely you are to win. If we look back to the strike shorten 98-99 season, where they played 50 games, you see what I mean. The Spurs had an average age of 30.0 but their go to was Tim Duncan at the ripe ole age of 23 years old. Duncan's stellar play and youthfulness energized the team and their main leadership of Avery Johnson(34) and David Robinson(33)stayed healthy throughout the season and playoffs. This is the formula you need to follow in a strike shorten season. This year not many teams
fit this profile but here are a few to watch.

In the West:

Dallas: Despite a slow start the Mavericks have the pieces in place(if health/lucky) to make a run to the playoffs.

Oklahoma City: Combine the experience gained last year during their run and their youth and this team is going to be dangerous.

Los Angeles Clippers: This team will need to gel but in basketball its easier then other sports. With that said the pace they play the game will be hard to maintain.

San Antonio: They have some good young pieces and Tim Duncan seems to be transitioning to a David Robinson role. They are my dark horse.

In the East:

Miami: This is the only team I’m going to list. I thought about the Bulls or the Knicks and even the Pacers... but really? Not this year, not this season. Miami will win at least 50 games out of 66. No team fits the formula better then the Heat. But like all teams they need to be lucky. A big time injury to either Lebron or D-Wade makes this team very beatable.

I know I’m missing some teams you will say but the Lakers don't have it this year. Its not happening. And as sad as I am to say it The Celtics do not have it as well. It’s going to be good to be lucky this year. Come back next week when I make my playoff predictions!

Macks Alan  

The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com